Michael Akerib

Michael Akerib

Michael Akerib, Vice-Rector, SWISS UMEF UNIVERSITY

"The treaty does not say that France must undertake to have children, but it is the first thing which ought to have been put in it. For if France turns her back on large families, one can put all the clauses one wants in a treaty, one can take all the guns of Germany, one can do whatever one likes, France will be lost because there will be no more Frenchmen." George Clemenceau

‘Not all those who wander are lost.’ J R R Tolkien

We live in a society in which choice is overwhelming, whether it is choice of our mode of life, choice of our beliefs, choice of the country in which we live, choice of our profession or choice of our diet. When we look back to the previous centuries, one thing that has obviously changed is our freedom from social pressure, and how this has changed our mindset.

‘Demography is destiny.’ Ben Wattenberg and Richard M. Scammon

In 1825 the world’s population reached, for the first time, the figure of 1 billion with a doubling of the population 100 years later and on to 5.3 billion in 1990. It stands today at 7.5 billion.

They have blossomed early this year and are more magnificent than ever. They should warm the hearts of Japan’s population.

The country seems to be in a category of its own. Perhaps its geographical position, making it a Balkan country in Europe, but also a country of the Caucasus, and a country of the Middle East, is responsible for what appears to be a major dilemma for the country to determine an international relations strategy.

The earth: a rapidly aging population with an average age of slightly over 29 years of age; an unevenly aging planet with Japan as the oldest society with an average age of 45 and 80% of the older people living in developed countries.; a planet with 7% of its population being over 65 years of age; a tripling of that population over the last 50 years and another tripling in the coming 50 years to reach 21%, or 2 billion persons.

“I predict that it is in Asia where the fate of the future will be decided.”-Tsar Alexander III

Needless to say, forecasts are extremely difficult to make in international relations, and all the more so when so many factors are in play. The author does not have any special information that he could use to forecast the future. The different miniscenarios are very wide and therefore any of these could reasonably, or unreasonably, be expected to occur.

The economy

Economists generally agree that the cumulative economies of China and India will be larger than that of the G7 by 2030. At present, China’s GCP stands at $9.2 trillion, or nearly 5 times that India.

The United States is today the hegemon, alone able to alter events to match its own strategy with the ability of fighting long wars far away from its home base. In spite of important engagements in Afghanistan and Iraq, a large part of its air and naval capabilities are still in the Pacific.

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